Estimation of the costs of crime
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Estimation of the costs of crime
The estimation of the impact (costs) of crime have received broad attention in economic literature and research, but the economic effect(s) and impact of crime on society is still an underexposed field of interest. The reason behind this is that it is very difficult to quantify the costs of, for example, the emotional and physical suffering of victims, or the quality of life that is reduced by the fear of crime. Below, we address some important methods used by economists to estimate the costs of crime.
Criminal offence typology
Before one can start the estimation of the costs of crime, it is important to categorize the offences that are going to be measured. These categories "should be distinguished in a crime victim survey as well as in the judical registrations (regarding offences that involve victims)"[1].
In the table below, two different typolies of categories of crime are listed:
| Categories of crime (SEO, 2007) | Categories of crime (Home Office, England/Wales) |
|---|---|
| Murder and manslaughter | Violence against the person |
| Sexual offences | Criminal damages |
| Property crimes | Burglary |
| Assault and battery | Other theft |
| Threats | Offences against vehicles |
| Vandalism and public order | Robbery |
| Traffic offences | Fraud and forgery |
| Drug offences | Robbery |
| Economic offences | Sexual offences |
| Other offences | Other offences |
Note, however, that "different crimes within the same offence category are likely to have vastly different costs"[2]. For example, property crimes include all kinds of property, including bikes, cars, a cellphone, et cetera.
Estimating the number of offences committed
One of the most important difficulties with mapping the economic effects of crime is the fact that only a fraction of all offences committed are known. Especially offences that don’t involve victims are only known if they are detected by public authorities/the police. Researchers developed several methods such as the use of assumptions, multipliers and specific statistical techniques to deal with this issue, but it remains difficult to include all effects, because one should also include effects on the change in behaviour, mental health (including production loss due to emotional damage) and the harm done to the social environment of the victim and criminal offender.
A Dutch economic research agency[3] estimated the number of criminal offences committed in the Netherlands in 2005 (see table below):
| Category of crime | Number of offences | % of total |
|---|---|---|
| Murder and manslaughter | 174 | 0.001% |
| Sexual offences | 181,000 | 1.5% |
| Property crimes | 6,089,000 | 52.0% |
| Assault & battery | 254,000 | 2.2% |
| Threats | 867,000 | 7.4% |
| Vandalism and public order | 3,020,000 | 25.8% |
| Traffic offences | 753,000 | 6.4% |
| Economic offences | 81,000 | 0.7% |
| Drug offences | 382,000 | 3.3% |
| Other offences | 82,000 | 0.7% |
| Total | 11,709,174 | 100% |
Table: Number of offences committed in 2005 in the Netherlands (source: SEO, 2007, edited by Decisio, 2012)
Although the table above is illustrating the situation for the Netherlands, the relative ratios of the serious offences (such as manslaughter and sexual offences) versus the by far more common property crimes and vandalism are also applicable to other EU-countries.
Estimation of the costs of criminal offences
"In general, the costs of crime are determined by three steps"[4].
- In the first step, the range of the research is established (perspective and timeframe)
- "The second step involves determining the various cost factors that can be distinguished".
- In the final step, the actual extent of the costs that were determined in the previous step is established". For this, crime victim surveys are mostly the point of departure for most cost factors[5].
The biggest cost factor by far are caused by harm to the victims. Costs as a result of loss of production due to theft or vandalism are as well substantial cost factors[6]. The table below illustrates an overview of the cost of criminal offences in the Netherlands.
| Category of crime | Prevention | Consequence | Response | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Murder and manslaughter | 0 | 409 | 144 | 554 |
| Sexual offences | 0 | 322 | 143 | 466 |
| Property crimes | 3,263 | 6,627 | 1,982 | 11,872 |
| Assault & battery | 0 | 1,078 | 320 | 1,401 |
| Threats | 0 | 2,128 | 171 | 2,299 |
| Vandalism and public order | 178 | 1,669 | 550 | 2,397 |
| Traffic offences | 43 | 382 | 307 | 732 |
| Economic offences | 0 | 0 | 44 | 44 |
| Drug offences | 0 | 0 | 253 | 253 |
| Other offences | 0 | 0 | 153 | 153 |
| Total | 3,484 | 12,617 | 4,071 | 20,173 |
Table: Total costs (in € mln.) of offences committed in 2005 in the Netherlands (source: SEO, 2007, edited by Decisio)
The table above illustrates furthermore that property damage results in the most damage, which is primarily due to the relatively high number of property crimes committed.The emotional consequences of crime could also lead to a loss of productivity.
References
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