Likelihood

Likelihood is the expected plausibility of an event to realise.

Description

Likelihood is one of the defining elements of risk. Usually expressed in the form of probability, it determines, alongside vulnerability and impact, the chance of an unwanted situation occuring.

Most commonly, likelihood can be quantified by statistical analysis. The likelihood of weather events occuring, for instance, has been the subject of a long and well-established study and knows a high degree of statistical basis. Wherever statistical data can predict the future, likelihood can be interpreted to equal probability.

A precondition for statistical analysis to be valid is that the future can be predicted on the basis of events in the past and this does not hold for all situations. Wherever threats are

For non-intentional threats

Equals probability.

For Human intent

Uses attractivity becauses of the problems with the use of probability in determining the likelihood of human intent.