Economic effects of crime

Economic effects of crime

The identification and the estimation of the costs of crime have received broad attention in economic literature and research, but the economic effect(s) and impact of crime on society is still an underexposed field of interest. Key figures of societal and economic impact of crime are difficult to identify, although it is widely understood that crime can affect the local, regional and national economy.

In essence, the economic effects of (both terrorism and) crime are the opposite of the positive economic effects of urban development (or spatial development). The successful burglary of a dwelling house or commercial building, for example, will not only lead to the loss of goods, but also affects (accumulated) the local, regional (and sometimes even national) economy through the decrease of property value and direct investments, uncertainty and fear of crime. This relationship is illustrated below:

File:Economics of crime.png
Figure: Illustration of relationship between a security threat and the urban object/environment

Primary economic effects of crime

In general, approaches to estimate the direct impact of crime focus on three levels:

1. Costs in anticipation of crime: mainly costs of precaution measures to avoid crime such as locks, alarm prevention programs and surveillance.
2. Costs as a consequence of crime: for instance, loss of property, medical and health care costs, victim support etc.
3. Costs in response to crime: costs considering police, prosecution, court proceedings, sanctions etc.The identification and the estimation of the costs of crime is undertaken by several scientific researchers.

Micro-economic impact

On a micro-economic level, crime influences three categories of economic actors Public authorities aim to prevent, detect, persecute, trial and punish criminals. Moreover, crime also influences the behaviour of individual households and private enterprises, as a (potential) victim, but also as supplier of community and civil protection services (think of security guards, neighbourhood watches and insurance companies).

How much crime is there?

One of the most important difficulties with mapping the economic effects of crime is the fact that only a fraction of all offences committed are known. Especially offences that don’t involve victims are only known if they are detected by public authorities/the police. Researchers developed several methods such as the use of assumptions, multipliers and specific statistical techniques to deal with this issue, but it remains difficult to include all effects, because one should also include effects on the change in behaviour, mental health (including production loss due to emotional damage) and the harm done to the social environment of the victim and criminal offender .

A Dutch economic research agency estimated the number of criminal offences committed in the Netherlands in 2005 (see table below):

Category of crime	Number of offences	% of total
Murder and manslaughter	174	0.001%
Sexual offences	181,000	1.5%
Property crimes	6,089,000	52.0%
Assault & battery	254,000	2.2%
Threats	867,000	7,4%
Vandalism and public order	3,020,000	25.8%
Traffic offences	753,000	6.4%
Economic offences	81,000	0.7%
Drug offences	382,000	3.3%
Other offences	82,000	0.7%
Total	11,709,174	100%

Table: Number of offences committed in 2005 in the Netherlands (source: SEO, 2007)

Although the table above is illustrating the situation for the Netherlands, the relative ratios of the serious offences (such as manslaughter and sexual offences) versus the by far more common property crimes and vandalism are also applicable to other EU-countries.

Primary economic impact at an individual household level

Facing security threats, individual households deal with the:

• Costs of preventive measures
• Costs of being a victim
• Costs due to behavioural changes due to fear of victimization
• Production loss due to emotional damage
• Use of mental healthcare
• Harm to offender’s and victim’s family, friends and acquaintances.

Examples of preventive measures are insurances (against property crimes), measures against breaking and entry, et cetera. The biggest cost factor by far are caused by harm to the victims. Costs as a result of loss of production due to theft or vandalism are as well substantial cost factors.

The table below illustrates an overview of the cost of criminal offences in the Netherlands.

Category of crime	Prevention	Consequence	Response	Total
Murder and manslaughter	0	409	144	554
Sexual offences	0	322	143	466
Property crimes	3,263	6,627	1,982	11,872
Assault & battery	0	1,078	320	1,401
Threats	0	2,128	171	2,299
Vandalism and public order	178	1,669	550	2,397
Traffic offences	43	382	307	732
Economic offences	0	0	44	44
Drug offences	0	0	253	253
Other offences	0	0	153	153
Total	3,484	12,617	4,071	20,173

Table: Total costs of offences committed in 2005 in the Netherlands (source: SEO, 2007, edited by Decisio)

The table above illustrates that the biggest cost due to criminal offences are caused by harm to victims. Furthermore, property damage results in the most damage, which is primarily due to the relatively high number of property crimes committed.

Primary economic impact of crime on businesses and firms

• Business companies and institutes as victims of crime
• Security industry

The global security industry consists of businesses and individuals whose aim is to sell safety from malevolent acts threatening life, property and other assets, and information. The security industry provides products and services ranging from fire and burglar alarms, locks and safes, through electronic access control, security consulting, to armoured car services, guard equipment and security fencing. The industry is also more and more providing services to public authorities.

The security industry is an rapidly expanding industry (7-8% annually since 2011). Available estimates put the private security industry's turnover at between USD 100 billion and USD 120 billion worldwide. The largest share is accounted for by the United States, but nevertheless the German security industry is estimated to be around USD 4 billion, and France's and the United Kingdom's around USD 3 billion.

Primary economic impact of crime on the public authorities

• Public authorities as victim (vandalism, and so on)
• Prevention measures
• Response measures

Secondary economic impact of crime

The identification and the estimation of the costs of crime is undertaken by several scientific researchers. Moolenaar (2005), for example, estimated the total costs of crime in The Netherlands to be 20 billion euro in 2004; approximately 4.1 percent of the GDP. There is, however, a wide variation of estimations of the total direct costs of crime between countries. The table illustrates a brief, non-comprehensive, list of direct costs of crime for several countries:

Country	Year	Direct economic impact of crime
The Netherlands	2004	4.1% of the GDP
Wales and England	2000	6.5% of the GDP
United States	1999	11.9% of the GDP

Long term macro-economic impact of crime:

• discourages domestic and foreign directe investments;
• reduces firms' competitiveness;
• reallocates resources creating uncertainty and inefficiency.

Related subjects

Economic effects of terrorism

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