Difference between revisions of "Likelihood"
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| − | '''Likelihood''' is the expected plausibility of an event to realise. |
+ | [[File:ae.png|25px|right|This is a page providing background in a specific field of expertise]]'''Likelihood''' is the expected plausibility of an event to realise. |
| − | =Description= |
+ | ==Description== |
| − | Likelihood is one of the defining elements of [[risk]]. Usually expressed in the form of [[probability]], it determines, alongside [[vulnerability]] and [[impact]], the chance of an unwanted situation |
+ | Likelihood is one of the defining elements of [[risk]]. Usually expressed in the form of [[wikipedia:probability|probability]], it determines, alongside [[vulnerability]] and [[impact]], the chance of an unwanted situation occurring. |
| − | Most commonly, likelihood can be quantified by statistical analysis. The likelihood of weather events |
+ | Most commonly, likelihood can be quantified by statistical analysis. The likelihood of extreme weather events occurring, for instance, has been the subject of long and well-established study and has a solid statistical basis. Wherever statistical data can predict the future, likelihood can be interpreted to equal probability. |
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| − | A precondition for statistical analysis to be valid is that the future can be predicted on the basis of events in the past and this does not hold for all situations. Wherever threats are |
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| + | {{references}} |
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| − | =For non-intentional threats= |
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| − | Equals [[probability]]. |
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| − | =For Human intent= |
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Latest revision as of 13:02, 25 April 2013
Likelihood is the expected plausibility of an event to realise.
Description
Likelihood is one of the defining elements of risk. Usually expressed in the form of probability, it determines, alongside vulnerability and impact, the chance of an unwanted situation occurring.
Most commonly, likelihood can be quantified by statistical analysis. The likelihood of extreme weather events occurring, for instance, has been the subject of long and well-established study and has a solid statistical basis. Wherever statistical data can predict the future, likelihood can be interpreted to equal probability.
Where this is problematic, probability is sometimes substituted with attractiveness because of the problems with the use of probability in determining the likelihood of human intent.
Footnotes and references
