Risk - Revision history

Albert at 23:34, 19 January 2018

2018-01-19T23:34:53Z

Albert at 11:51, 22 October 2014

2014-10-22T11:51:12Z

Albert: /* Definitions */

2013-08-13T08:52:34Z

Definitions

Albert: /* Definitions */

2013-08-13T08:51:59Z

Definitions

Albert: /* Definitions */

2013-08-13T08:51:48Z

Definitions

Albert at 08:47, 13 August 2013

2013-08-13T08:47:48Z

Florian at 10:21, 9 July 2013

2013-07-09T10:21:16Z

Florian at 07:31, 18 June 2013

2013-06-18T07:31:56Z

Florian at 14:38, 11 June 2013

2013-06-11T14:38:19Z

Florian at 14:37, 11 June 2013

2013-06-11T14:37:08Z

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 [[Category:Threat]]
-[[File:ae.png|25px|right|This is a page providing background in a specific field of expertise]]'''Risk''' is a measure for the expectation of undesirable outcome ([[has attribute::impact]]) to realise. This expectation concerns both the [[has attribute::likelihood]] and [[impact]] of the undesired outcome. Quantified levels of risk are often used to enable an assessment of risk in order to establish if they fall within acceptable limits or to determine which risks pose the highest [[has attribute::threat]].
+[[File:ae.png|25px|right|This is a page providing background in a specific field of expertise]]'''Risk''' is a measure for the expectation of undesirable outcome ([[impact]]) to realise. This expectation concerns both the [[likelihood]] and [[impact]] of the undesired outcome. Quantified levels of risk are often used to enable an assessment of risk in order to establish if they fall within acceptable limits or to determine which risks pose the highest [[threat]].
 == Definitions ==
@@ Line 9: / Line 9: @@
 == Objective and subjective risk==
-There are two aspects of the determination of risks: the risks that are in fact present ([[consists of::Risk#About objective risk|objective risks]]), and the risks as they are perceived ([[consists of::Risk#Perception_of_risk|subjective risks]]). One would expect the two to be very similar, but studies have shown they can (and often do) differ quite a bit.
+There are two aspects of the determination of risks: the risks that are in fact present ([[Risk#About objective risk|objective risks]]), and the risks as they are perceived ([[Risk#Perception_of_risk|subjective risks]]). One would expect the two to be very similar, but studies have shown they can (and often do) differ quite a bit.
 ===About subjective risk===
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 <big>'''Risk''' = '''Likelihood'''</big> of event realizing  <big>'''X'''  '''Impact'''</big> (expected loss in case the accident realises).
-Many variations exist, for example by distinguishing between the likelihood of a threat realizing (also called probability) and the likelihood that that threat will affect an object ([[has attribute::vulnerability]]). An example would be storm damage: The probability would reflect the likelihood of a storm at the object, the vulnerability would reflect the likelihood that this storm would cause damage and the impact would reflect the extent of damage that would occur if the storm would cause damage. The quantified risk formula associated with this definition is
+Many variations exist, for example by distinguishing between the likelihood of a threat realizing (also called probability) and the likelihood that that threat will affect an object ([[vulnerability]]). An example would be storm damage: The probability would reflect the likelihood of a storm at the object, the vulnerability would reflect the likelihood that this storm would cause damage and the impact would reflect the extent of damage that would occur if the storm would cause damage. The quantified risk formula associated with this definition is
 <big>'''Risk''' = '''Likelihood'''</big> of event realising  <big>'''X'''  '''Vulnerability'''</big> (probability of realised event impacting object) <big>'''X'''  '''Impact'''</big> (expected loss in case the accident realises and impacting object).
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 Risk assessment is used to get a good understanding of the various circumstances that might have a negative impact on the realisation of your goals. In other words, it can be used as a systematic way to survey the weak spots in your plans and do something about it before they cause problems.
-The [[opposed by::Concept level tools#Risk Assessment tool (SecuRbAn|SecuRbAn]] tool is a tool to quickly do a high-level risk assessment on planned urban development, developed in the context of the VITRUV project.
+The [[Concept level tools#Risk Assessment tool (SecuRbAn|SecuRbAn]] tool is a tool to quickly do a high-level risk assessment on planned urban development, developed in the context of the VITRUV project.
 ==Sources of risk==
-One way to typify types of risk is by their causes. A cause for risk is called a [[is caused by::threat]]. Threats can be classified into [[is the opposite of::safety]] threats, consisting of [[is caused by::natural threat|natural threat]]s, [[is caused by::human failure]], [[is caused by::technical failure]], [[is caused by::failure of critical services]] and [[is the opposite of::security]] threats which are due to [[is caused by::human intent]].
+One way to typify types of risk is by their causes. A cause for risk is called a [[threat]]. Threats can be classified into [[safety]] threats, consisting of [[natural threat|natural threat]]s, [[human failure]], [[technical failure]], [[failure of critical services]] and [[security]] threats which are due to [[human intent]].
 ==Related subjects==

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 [[Category:Threat]]
-[[File:ae.png|25px|right|This is a page providing background in a specific field of expertise]]'''Risk''' is a measure for the expectation of undesirable outcome [[has attribute::impact]] to realise. This expectation concerns both the [[has attribute::likelihood]] and [[impact]] of the undesired outcome. Quantified levels of risk are often used to enable an assessment of risk in order to establish if they fall within acceptable limits or to determine which risks pose the highest [[has attribute::threat]].
+[[File:ae.png|25px|right|This is a page providing background in a specific field of expertise]]'''Risk''' is a measure for the expectation of undesirable outcome ([[has attribute::impact]]) to realise. This expectation concerns both the [[has attribute::likelihood]] and [[impact]] of the undesired outcome. Quantified levels of risk are often used to enable an assessment of risk in order to establish if they fall within acceptable limits or to determine which risks pose the highest [[has attribute::threat]].
 == Definitions ==

@@ Line 6: / Line 6: @@
 == Definitions ==
-There is no universally accepted definition for risk. A prominent definition of risk is provided in the ISO 31000:2009 risk management standard, <ref name="iso31000">See: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ISO_31000</ref> where risk is defined as the ‘effect of uncertainty on objectives’ and both positive and negative effects are included. As this definition is of a high conceptual level and can be counter-intuitive, for the purpose of this wiki, the definition as mentioned above will be used. In the plan and detail level tools, these elements of risk are operationalised in terms of susceptibility and consequence (see [[Plan_level_tools#Calculation_method|Plan level tools]]).
+There is no universally accepted definition for risk. A prominent definition of risk is provided in the ISO 31000:2009 risk management standard, <ref name="iso31000">See: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ISO_31000</ref> where risk is defined as the ‘effect of uncertainty on objectives’ and both positive and negative effects are included. As this definition is of a high conceptual level and can be counter-intuitive, for the purpose of this wiki, the definition as mentioned above will be used. In the plan and detail level tools, these elements of risk are translated into terms of susceptibility and consequence (see [[Plan_level_tools#Calculation_method|Plan level tools]]).
 == Objective and subjective risk==

@@ Line 6: / Line 6: @@
 == Definitions ==
-There is no universally accepted definition for risk. A prominent definition of risk is provided in the ISO 31000:2009 risk management standard, <ref name="iso31000">See: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ISO_31000</ref> where risk is defined as the ‘effect of uncertainty on objectives’ and both positive and negative effects are included. As this definition is of a high conceptual level and can be counter-intuitive, for the purpose of this wiki, the definition as mentioned above will be used. In the plan and detail level tools, these elements of risk are operationalised in terms of susceptibility and consequence (see [[Plan_level_tools#Calculation_method|Plan level tools]].
+There is no universally accepted definition for risk. A prominent definition of risk is provided in the ISO 31000:2009 risk management standard, <ref name="iso31000">See: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ISO_31000</ref> where risk is defined as the ‘effect of uncertainty on objectives’ and both positive and negative effects are included. As this definition is of a high conceptual level and can be counter-intuitive, for the purpose of this wiki, the definition as mentioned above will be used. In the plan and detail level tools, these elements of risk are operationalised in terms of susceptibility and consequence (see [[Plan_level_tools#Calculation_method|Plan level tools]]).
 == Objective and subjective risk==

@@ Line 6: / Line 6: @@
 == Definitions ==
-There is no universally accepted definition for risk. A prominent definition of risk is provided in the ISO 31000:2009 risk management standard, <ref name="iso31000">See: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ISO_31000</ref> where risk is defined as the ‘effect of uncertainty on objectives’ and both positive and negative effects are included. As this definition is of a high conceptual level and can be counter-intuitive, for the purpose of this wiki, the definition as mentioned above will be used.
+There is no universally accepted definition for risk. A prominent definition of risk is provided in the ISO 31000:2009 risk management standard, <ref name="iso31000">See: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ISO_31000</ref> where risk is defined as the ‘effect of uncertainty on objectives’ and both positive and negative effects are included. As this definition is of a high conceptual level and can be counter-intuitive, for the purpose of this wiki, the definition as mentioned above will be used. In the plan and detail level tools, these elements of risk are operationalised in terms of susceptibility and consequence (see [[Plan_level_tools#Calculation_method|Plan level tools]].
 == Objective and subjective risk==

@@ Line 36: / Line 36: @@
 A simple, but widely used definition of risk is therefore
-<big>'''Risk''' = '''Likelihood'''</big> of event realizing  <big>'''X'''  '''Impact'''</big> (expected loss in case the accident realizes).
+<big>'''Risk''' = '''Likelihood'''</big> of event realizing  <big>'''X'''  '''Impact'''</big> (expected loss in case the accident realises).
 Many variations exist, for example by distinguishing between the likelihood of a threat realizing (also called probability) and the likelihood that that threat will affect an object ([[has attribute::vulnerability]]). An example would be storm damage: The probability would reflect the likelihood of a storm at the object, the vulnerability would reflect the likelihood that this storm would cause damage and the impact would reflect the extent of damage that would occur if the storm would cause damage. The quantified risk formula associated with this definition is

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 Results from urban planning decisions can influence citizens’ perception of risk including the distraction of their risk perception for more objective risk levels. Conversely, citizens’ risk perception can result in societal demands on urban planning. Several specific aspects as addressed in the following are worth consideration in strategic urban planning. These aspects among others include indicators for citizens’ subjective perception of criticality of infrastructure and need to protect it, including by appropriate urban planning measures. Conversely, infrastructure that results from urban planning may also influence subjective assessment of its criticality and contribution to security or susceptibility to natural or anthropogenic (“man made”) risk.
-Risk perception is strongly influenced by various subjective factors that drag it from objective risk figures. Those factors include overconfidence, loss aversion, individual experience, capacity of remembering privious risk encounters, [[Security culture|cultural factors]], confidence in institutions, etc.<ref>Cf.  Covello V. T. et. al.: Risk Communication, the West Nile Virus Epidemic, and Bioterrorism: Responding to the Communication Challenges Posed by the Intentional or Unintentional Release of a Pathogen in an Urban Setting. Journal of Urban Health: Bulletin of the New York Academy of Medicine, vol. 78, no. 2, 2001, 382-391.
+Risk perception is strongly influenced by various subjective factors that drag it from objective risk figures. Factors such as overconfidence, loss aversion, individual experience, temporal factors, capacity of remembering, level of information and knowledge, public discourse, stigmatisation, cultural factors, orientation of values, confidence in institutions, etc. <ref>Cf.  Covello V. T. et. al.: Risk Communication, the West Nile Virus Epidemic, and Bioterrorism: Responding to the Communication Challenges Posed by the Intentional or Unintentional Release of a Pathogen in an Urban Setting. Journal of Urban Health: Bulletin of the New York Academy of Medicine, vol. 78, no. 2, 2001, 382-391.
 Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD): OECD Reviews of Risk Management Policies. Future Global Shocks. Improving Risk Governance. Preliminary Version. OECD Publication Service, 2011; Proske D.: Katalog Risiken - Risiken und ihre Darstellung. Dresden: Eigenverlag, 2004, 167-174. Retrieved from: http://www.qucosa.de/fileadmin/data/qucosa/documents/71/1218786958574-1736.pdf.

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 Slovic P. et al.: Facts and Fears: Societal Perception of Risk, in: Monroe K.B., Abor A. (eds.): Advances In Consumer Research, vol. 08, Association For Consumer Research, 1981, 497-502. Retrieved from: http://www.acrwebsite.org/volumes/display.asp?id=5844.
-H. Sterr et al.: Risikomanagement im Küstenschutz in Norddeutschland. In: C. Felgentreff/T. Glade: Naturrisiken und Sozialkatastrophen. Berlin Heidelberg: Springer, 2008, p. 345-346.
+Sterr H. et al.: Risikomanagement im Küstenschutz in Norddeutschland, in: Felgentreff C., Glade T.: Naturrisiken und Sozialkatastrophen. Berlin Heidelberg: Springer, 2008,345-346.
-M. Zwick/O. Renn: Risikokonzepte jenseits von Eintrittswahrscheinlichkeit und Schadenserwartung. In: C. Felgentreff/T. Glade: Naturrisiken und Sozialkatastrophen. Berlin Heidelberg: Springer, 2008, p. 85-95.</ref>
+Zwick M., Renn O.: Risikokonzepte jenseits von Eintrittswahrscheinlichkeit und Schadenserwartung, in: Felgentreff C., Glade T.: Naturrisiken und Sozialkatastrophen. Berlin Heidelberg: Springer, 2008, 85-95.</ref>
 This is relevant to urban planners since they have some means to direct the perceived security or at the very least has means to predict it and account for it in planning.
-Addressing of risk in planning should be coherent with societal risk perception and views.<ref>ECD: OECD Reviews of Risk Management Policies. Future Global Shocks. Improving Risk Governance. Preliminary Version. OECD Publishing, 2011.
+Addressing of risk in planning should be coherent with societal risk perception and views.<ref>Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD): OECD Reviews of Risk Management Policies. Future Global Shocks. Improving Risk Governance. Preliminary Version. OECD Publication Service, 2011
-OECD (2003): Emerging Risks in the 21st Century. An Agenda for Action. OECD Publication Service: Paris. Retrieved from: http://www.unisdr.org/eng/library/Literature/7754.pdf [last access: 2011 07 28]: 54-56.</ref>.
+Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD): Emerging Risks in the 21st Century. An Agenda for Action. Paris: OECD Publication Service, 2003, 54-56. Retrieved from: http://www.unisdr.org/eng/library/Literature/7754.pdf [last access: 2011 07 28].</ref>
 Adequate risk management and public communication can help urban planners to prevent negative effects from public risk perception or misperception, and related public demands on or acceptance of urban design. However, effects of urban planning decisions can also distract citizens’ risk perception from more objective risk levels.
-To do so, the complexity of individual and social mechanisms of risk perception has to be appreciated.<ref>D. P. Coppola: Introduction to International Disaster Management. Oxford: Butterworth-Heinemann, 2007, p. 162.</ref> Humans usually do not fear statistically highly ranked threats to life and health (such as car accidents, food poisoning, cancer and others), whereas they are disproportionately wary of spectacular hazards, even if related vulnerabilities are low.
+To do so, the complexity of individual and social mechanisms of risk perception has to be appreciated.<ref> Coppola D. P.: Introduction to International Disaster Management. Oxford: Butterworth-Heinemann, 2007, 162. </ref> Humans usually do not fear statistically highly ranked threats to life and health (such as car accidents, food poisoning, cancer and others), whereas they are disproportionately wary of spectacular hazards, even if related vulnerabilities are low.
 ===About objective risk===